A war broke out between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022. The outbreak of the war has caused disruptions worldwide especially for agriculture and food security and has exposed populations to shocks and vulnerabilities (The European Commission, 2022). This war has brought serious consequences worldwide such as price hikes, stalled exports from Ukraine, staled harvests and has caused the disruption of markets (Welsh, 2022). These consequences have affected agriculture and has led to a massive deterioration in global food security resulting in huge disruptions in livelihoods for populations globally and leaving them exposed to shocks and vulnerabilities (Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), 2022). The war has especially affected those who were already vulnerable to poor food security and shocks and with the crisis ongoing this is only expected to worsen (Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), 2022, Welsh, 2022). This article looks at some of the main impacts of the war on global agriculture and food security such as price hikes and deteriorating food supplies.
Shortages
Historically, wars cause huge shortages and especially food shortages (Untied Nations University, U/D) and this war is no different. Before the war Russia and the Ukraine were huge producers and exporters of important foodstuffs as seen in figure 1 below. In 2021 either Russia or Ukraine ranked as one of the highest exporters of wheat, maize, rapeseed, sunflower seeds and sunflower oil (Figure 1). From figure 1 we can see that on average the two countries accounted for 19% of the global output of barely, 14% of the global output of wheat and 4% of the global output of maize. Before the war Ukraine alone exported on average 6 million tons of agricultural commodities every month to the developing countries of the Middle East, Asia and Africa (Strubenhoff, 2022). However the war has resulted in huge supply chain shortages of important agricultural inputs and commodities (Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), 2022, Strubenhoff, 2022). The war has disrupted livelihoods and agriculture especially in Ukraine. The ongoing conflict has resulted in constraints in terms of physical access to agricultural land and transport systems and infrastructure. For example the war has led to port closures, suspension of oilseed crushing operations, the introduction if export licensing restrictions and bans for some crops and food products. Impacts such as these is causing huge food shortages across the world and this is affecting food security and unfortunately is affecting those who are most vulnerable to food insecurity even before the war started (FAO, 2022a).
Before the war there was already a huge food crisis however with Russia and Ukraine being responsible for the growth and exportation of huge amounts of staple foods its believed that this war is pushing the already existing global food crisis into a worse state (Bankova et al., 2022). FAO, 2022b and The European Parliament, 2022 predicts that the war is set to increase the number of people facing chronic hunger to 13.1 million with countries such as Jordan, Yemen, Israel and Lebanon being the country’s most at risk to this chronic hunger. Our global import dependency reliance on Russia and Ukraine for important food imports has left us with food shortages globally which is affecting those who need it most and is accelerating the already existing global food crisis (Bankova et al., 2022, FAO, 2022b, The European Parliament, 2022).
Price Hikes
Before the war prices were already rising due to shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic however, since the war started prices have soared even further to record levels (FAO, 2022). The Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) food price index in Feburary 2022 had seen a 21% increase in prices in comparison to February 2021. This was an increase of 2.2% on the previous peak in February 2011 (FAO, 2022, FAO, 2022a).
Figure 2 below shows the ever increasing prices of oil since 2020 and we can see that since the war it has ballooned to levels close to those of price booms in 2008. Rises in fuel prices have also reached a record high (Capplis, 2022). These rising fuels are as a result of sanction put in place during the war in order to reduce the exportation of good from Russia however, with Russia being one of the leading fuel providers these sanctions and shortages have caused huge price hikes for the consumers (Jones, 2022, European Parliament, 2022).
The war has also brought rising prices for important agricultural inputs such as fertilizer (FAO, 2022c). Russia is one of the leading exporters and suppliers of phosphorous and nitrogen fertilizer’s which are important for the optimisation of crop yields around the world (Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), 2022). The war has brought huge sanctions for Russia in the hope that it would stop their invasion of Ukraine however, in terms of the purchasing of fertilizers the war and sanctions has caused fertilizer prices to rise even further (Domm, 2022). Domm (2022) reports that some fertilizers have doubled if not tripled in prices. Price hikes of such imports is causing the overall price of food to increase. If the farmer uses the fertilizer it means the overall costs of production is increased and therefore the price of the final product is set to increase. However, if the farmer chooses not to use the fertilizer the cost of production goes down however, production is not optimal as yields suffer and decrease causing even more food shortages. With such food shortages comes even more price hikes so either way the consumer pays the price (Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), 2022). This is having a huge effect on food security worldwide as inevitably food prices are set to increase. Price hike and especially food price hikes again exposes the most vulnerable and increases and pushes the number of people facing chronic hunger up even further.
In conclusion the Ukraine and Russian war is having a huge impact on agriculture globally by directly affecting growth of food and indirectly by contributing to the rising price of important agricultural inputs. This impact on growth is in turn causing food shortages globally which is contributing to the an price rises of food commodities. Before the war began, for some food was already unaffordable and left people vulnerable in terms of food security. However, the war has accelerated this vulnerability and has worsened the food security status worldwide.
This war shows us that we are further away than ever from reaching our sustainable development goals and with the climate crisis and further inflation bringing even more expected shocks and changes to our global systems one must question what progress has been made in the achievement of the SDG’s and a sustainable working world.
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