Scenario models of predicted Climate Change impacts on Global economic, have identified key likelihoods. They predict that climate change will reduce global GDP and that negative economic impacts are generally expected to be worse at higher temperature thresholds of 3˚C. These higher temperature are also predicted to first effect the global south countries such as South America, Africa and Asia. An analysis of the Human Development Index by the UNDP over the last 40 years further validates that ttemperature-related shocks hit poorer countries harder than richer countries, (Ghislandi, Sanderson, & Scherbov, 2019).
In these global south countries, the poor and vulnerable populations are already disproportionately burdened with inequalities such as limited access to healthcare, education, food, housing. Which cc has already shown to increase these inequalities For example in the highlands of Sub-Saharan Africa, malaria vectorial capacity has increased by 27.6% since the 1950 baseline due to increase in temperature and the creation of new favorable breeding conditions for vectors in areas unfamiliar with treatments. Rise in temperature has also resulted in reduce food and nutrition security which could suppress the immune system ability to fight such diseases. Climate change is predicted to increase the number of other communicable disease such as dengue, cholera further reducing the labor force and education attendance while adding economic pressure on the health systems and households and thus increasing the burden of existing health inequalities, (Ghislandi et al., 2019).
As well as malnutrition impinging recovery from diseases / making hosts more susceptible to disease, it also creates a major problem for human development in relation to Education. Malnutrition due to rising temperatures and fall in crop yields can greatly impact a child’s learning potential in school and the household’s ability to send children to school. Livelihoods shocks i.e. failed crops [household income] due to flooding/drought. Even were school is free, the pressure of poverty on the household can direct children into income generating activities or as is the common case in Myanmar child marriage rather than education, in order to maintain houses’ income as a coping strategy. (Ghislandi et al., 2019), (Mawi, 2015), (GEN, 2016). More Girls in Myanmar are finally getting the opportunity to see the inside of classrooms. The improved income and nutrition that CSA and Sustainable agri in Myanmar aim to provide could help ensure they complete their education and at the same time taking steps to break empowerment barriers that women face.
From the global south countries, Asia is expected to add to the global population by 46% by 2030. When comparing Southeast Asian economies Myanmar has the lowest GDP of south east Asian countries, at US$1,298 per capita per annum [annual growth expectation of 6.4% expected to fall to 0.5% – due to Covid just escaping recession].
As in 2008 when the delta region was devastated by cyclone Nargis 2008, international aid would be required to cope with short and long-term impacts of additional extreme weather events that cc will inevitably provide. Farmers in this survey remarked on the noticeable change in climatic patterns i.e. increase of rain, prolonged monsoons and later start to monsoon season, flooding, drought which they can attribute to reduced yield, increase of pest and disease among crop and livestock, loss of crops and livestock and in some households. Some female participants also noted that they have reduced their food consumption to ensure that other household members eat. This food insecurity – will lead to increased malnutrition.
With majority of rural farmers in Myanmar using traditional farming methods they have been recognized by FAO for achieving the stringent Millennium Development target of halving the number of hungry people by 2015 deadline. But malnutrition is still a major problem. Estimated that 38% of population live near or below the poverty line. Most recent food insecurity findings state that 734,203 citizens of Myanmar do not have access to safe, sufficient and nutritious food and are in need of food assistance. While 29% of children under 5years are suffering from stunting, (FAO,2020). Given the loss of yield identified by farmers in this study, increased climate change will only increase food insecurity and related health problems and human development inequalities as outlined by UNDP Human Development report, (Ghislandi et al., 2019). The adaption of agriculture methods with greater inclusion of women (who comprise 70% of the agri work force) and increasing the access to natural recourse could potentially continue to reduce food insecurity. As the largest declines of crop yields will occur where food insecurity and poverty is already a threat, (Ghislandi et al., 2019). It is critical that the agriculture sector is adapted to enable Myanmar to sustainable provide food security for its rapidly growing population and prevent relying international aid and further inequalities in human development.
In comparison, Ireland which is 3rd on the human development index and experiences very good gender equality and food security standards. As mentioned earlier, recent temperature modeling shows that regional heat extremes will generally be experienced in poorer countries (close to equator) before being experienced in richer countries located at mid-latitude regions. Suggesting that climate change-related inequality may not have major effect on Irish citizens until global temperatures increase by about 3˚C. Whereas climate change-related inequality will add to existing human development issues at 1.5˚C of global warning.
Thus, to reiterate point made in previous blog, by working to improve food insecurity and gender empowerment and prevent adding to existing burdens and inequalities in Myanmar, is aligned with many of the Millennium Development Goals and UN main priority to ”reach the furthest behind first”. But also on moral grounds to help others in greater need than yourself. Also by focusing on climate change mitigation and adaption projects in global south countries now who are already facing burdens i.e. health, food security education etc. and who will face greater climate change impacts sooner than global north countries – will alleviate pressure on global north countries to help these countries when they themselves will be in need of cc adaption. Early adaption will also reduce economic damage associates with climate change. Research shows that as the number of climate change events have increased between the 1960-2015, so has the global financial expenses that climate change is creating. Image: modeling of climate change risk and associated costs as concluded that deferring climate change mitigation action by five years could cost $24 trillion. Deferring by 10years could cost $100trillion, (UNDP, 2018). The majority of global south countries would have to look to developed countries for increased financial aid to cover their share of the rehabilitation costs – however would these global north countries be in the same financial position as they are now to help?
It must be also pointed out that the beauty of CSA lies within its versatility and ability to suit specific site locations. whether it is used in neighboring villages in Myanmar with different topography and crops or used in various countries. Therefore, CSA options can be used in Ireland but of course adapted to suit the site, farmers’ needs and social-economic factors. And fortunately for Ireland we are in a better position to access resource etc. required for climate change adaption, but lack political will and foresight like most countries. Perhaps there is a greater plan in store as the current burdens of Covid – an indirect result of climate change – and existing knowledge of additional burdens i.e. deferred costs has of yet not caused governments to refocus their priorities.
Bibliography:
FAO,2020, Myanmar at a glance, http://www.fao.org/myanmar/fao-in-myanmar/myanmar/en/
GEN. (2016). Report on Obstacles to Gender Equality in Myanmar. Retrieved from file:///C:/Users/sally/Dropbox/McCarrick,%20Sally%20IIRR/PDFs%20to%20read/Obstacles%20to%20gender%20equality%20in%20Myanmar%20FullReport.pdf
Ghislandi, S., Sanderson, W. C., & Scherbov, S. (2019). A simple measure of human development: The Human Life Indicator. Population and development review, 45(1), 219.
Mawi, F. B. N. (2015). The Bride Price Negotiation Among Chin Women In Myanmar. https://www.burmalibrary.org/docs21/Society%20and%20Culture/FloraxBawixNeixMawi-2015-The_Bride_Price_negotiation_Among_Chin_Women_In_Myanmar-en.pdf
WFP. (2020). What the World Food Programme is doing in Myanmar. Retrieved from https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000118424/download/?_ga=2.217319568.746317726.1599462417-1919261594.1592912476. https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000118424/download/?_ga=2.217319568.746317726.1599462417-1919261594.1592912476