Agriculture in Ireland has been around for many years, it is a part of Irish tradition and culture. Accounting for 7.1% of total employment in Ireland in 2019 (www3). The agriculture and Agrifood sector has modified and developed over the years (Kearney 2010). However a growing national and indeed global population means there is a greater demand for our agriculture sector. To meet these demands certain future priorities need to be addressed for this important sector to be viable (Carthy and Melvin 2003). An industry slightly shadowed by dairy production, the beef sector is rapidly growing here in Ireland. The growth of the beef sector is predicted to continue to grow to a possible 1.6 million by the end of 2020 (webinar 5), however, various factors may affect the future of beef and the agriculture sector in Ireland. Beef (Bos Taurus) is a large part of the Irish agricultural industry and in terms of the economy, it is responsible for more than one-quarter of Ireland’s economic output. Currently, in 2020 the Common Agricultural Policy or more commonly known as CAP is being reformed, a reformation set to tackle the future hardships expected to hit the Agricultural sector and include issues like the environmental role of agriculture (Casey and Holden 2006). Consumer and social demands play a vital role in the future of the Irish Agri sector, without consumers the market collapses, and the Agri sector will suffer. Price is an important factor when consumers choose their products, but they are also very aware and concerned with issues such as environmental sustainability, animal welfare, and supporting the “buy local” idea (Tempesta et al 2019). The Agriculture sector is a major supplier. Consumers are people who purchase goods and services for personal use. Consumers related to the Agriculture sector are located in many parts of the world from China to the UK, the future of the Irish Agriculture sector is heavily dependent on these countries for both exporting goods and importing. In a survey carried out by PwC in 2019, it showed that 41% of consumers would be willing to pay more for sustainable goods, sustainability is a vital expectation and demand consumers have for the future. Future factors that may affect both the consumer and the Agri sector are factors like income (Carpio and Isengildina 2009) and weather. The price is powerful, it is important never to forget how important money is. A consumer’s income determines how much they will be able to pay for a product (Carpio and Isengildina 2009), on the other hand, a farmer’s income is also extremely important, the greater the farm size the larger the income, which in turn increases the output and the variety of goods cultured for output. (Finneran and Crosson 2013).Weather is an unpredictable factor in Agriculture. Extreme weather conditions have prolonged effects on farming outputs, these effects can then delay or limit the number of products available to the consumers (Hay 2007) Although consumers are very important to the Agriculture sector they are not the sole competent to the future of the Agriculture sector Brexit, the environment and innovation and technology all play a part in the future of the Agriculture and the Agrifood sector.
Brexit
In the coming months and indeed the future, Brexit is going to play a vital role in the future of the agriculture sector in Ireland, especially the beef sector (webinar 1). Brexit is the term given to the UK withdrawal from the European Union (Clarke et al 2017). This exit will affect the agriculture sector for many reasons, it affects imports and exports of both the crop and meat industry. Currently, there are talks to try to agree on a deal between the UK and the rest of the EU. However, a no-deal Brexit will mean that world trade tariffs will apply on all imports and exports to and from Ireland, having devastating effects on the Irish agriculture sector (Conefrey, T., 2019). Ideally, a deal will be made and the trade tariffs won’t hit the agriculture sector as hard as a no-deal Brexit. As we are presently coming to the end of the transition period of Brexit, a decision is needed within and by the end of 2020 to allow the Agri sector to prepare for the impact of this decision. Brexit impacts on Irish Agri‐food exports to the UK. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, it has been proposed by the UK that a mixture of zero tariffs on goods not produced in the UK or goods where the UK has deemed itself competitive at world prices e.g. cereals, the UK has said tariffs would not be put on cereals (Matthews 2017). In the case of products that are very politically and economically sensitive, it is predicted an EU MFN (Most Favourite Nation clause) level will be applied. In 2019 the UK has said they will not impose tariffs on exports from Ireland to Northern Ireland or install physical customs to inspect goods (Gormley-Heenan and Aughey 2017), this would make beef and dairy trade easier for those farmers in the republic of Ireland nevertheless in addition to this Northern Ireland won’t act as a bridge to tariff-free trade. At present in 2020 a no-deal Brexit would have many negative impacts, our dependency on the UK for exports and imports, dependence on Great Britain as a land bridge to other markets make Brexit a major priority in the future of Irish agriculture (Conefrey 2019)The most vulnerable Agri sector in all these negotiations is beef farming, the UK accounts for almost 50% of our beef exports (www4), any hit to the beef market price will have serious effects on the already low farm and processing business margin. The beef sector like many other Irish sectors is extremely dependant on the UK Market (Matthews 2017)… There is currently no other EU member state that could replace the UK beef market (webinar 1) unfortunately at the world market level, Irish beef production is not as competitive If a no-deal Brexit is decided, the high tariffs would lead to a large reduction in Irish beef prices, thus making the beef industry unviable here in Ireland and small scale farmers may have to cease farming or convert to dairy, and expensive change and not greatly welcomed to the family-owned farmer (Conefrey 2019). However, dairy is less vulnerable than beef and is more competitive in the world market as well as this it is less dependent on the UK market for survival. The dairy sector will be more likely to survive the hit of a no Brexit deal than beef.
Environment
A growing concern amongst many consumer, producers, and policymakers is the increase in agriculture emissions (Lynch et al 2019), with a focus on the use of fertilisers on land and dairy herd sizes, herd sizes which are expected to get bigger with Brexit as more beef farmers consider changing to dairy farming. A significant impact of farming is the loss of biodiversity. Improving biodiversity loss due to the intensification of agriculture could be tackled by monitoring. As well as monitoring the loss of biodiversity, habitat monitoring can also help identify and evaluate crop diseases and help in pest management (Yuan et al 2017).In the past agriculture has had a significant contribution to overall emissions, there has been a special focus on this sector to reduce Co2 released from farms to help reach Irelands national climate change targets (Abdalla et al 2011). To ensure Ireland meets these targets, there have been many suggestions made to improve both agriculture emissions and possibly change the future of agriculture on the island. An extension of the current grazing season a benefit to the farmer as it is less of a cost than cutting and storing silage which in turn is a positive for the environment as a reduction in silage means less effluent and less pollution of groundwater (Läpple et al 2012). Farm to Fork is the core approach of the European Union Green Deal. The concept is to make Agrifood systems healthy and fair without harming the environment. It has been made evident during a crisis, like the current coronavirus pandemic, how important sectors like agriculture are, however, key to its resilience and survival is sustainability (www1). Although it is a vital economic activity, agriculture has had serious impacts on the world’s greenhouse gas emissions (Claeys et al 2019), negative impacts on ecosystems, and public health. To be successful, all stakeholders in t farm to fork need to be aware of the potential new and positive opportunities sustainability can bring with them. The strategies in place with the Farm to Fork initiative will encourage healthy ecosystems and biodiversity to regenerate on the lands they once claimed, for consumers, the demand for more sustainable food and healthier food processing will be met by more sustainable food. While meeting the demands for consumers evolving diets, Farm to Fork will also help support farmers (www2). It is also predicted that Farm to Fork will have neutral and perhaps even positive impacts on the environment, help in the fight against climate change, and many other positive impacts (www1).In order to achieve these goals set out by the European Green Deal innovation and research is a key driver.
Technology and innovation
New technological advances mean the hardship of some aspects of farming is a thing of the past. Many farmers are willing to have technical assistance, as a positive impact of technology is greater output. This shift in digitization in agriculture is referred to as smart or precision farming (O’Grady, M.J. and O’Hare 2017). Harvesting of fruits and vegetables is heavily reliant on humans for the physically picking these goods, in recent years there has been more investment in the automation of this task (yin et al 2009). There was a university in the Netherlands working sweet-pepper harvester, which could be adapted to other greenhouse-grown vegetables, this sort of forwarding thinking and innovation relies on precise and efficient software. In Japan, a strawberry harvester was built and tested, and similarly the UK a strawberry picker has been made and can harvest roughly fifteen to twenty strawberries in one minute, an application that could be used here in Ireland (Yamamoto 2014). An obvious factor in this sort of technology is of course ripeness, harvesting too soon or too late is wasteful, in Germany, the timing of harvesting is being examined using sensors which reads the size and chlorophyll levels of apples, this data is analysed and alerts the farmer via smartphone when it is time to harvest (Zude et al 2016). Teagasc has been leading technological changes here in Ireland. Collars have been fitted with an electrical device that monitors cow’s movement, eating, fertility, and other stats which are then passed on to farmer’s smartphones and computers. (Caria et al 2017) Blood and hormones can be monitored and determine when a cow is fertile enough to breed (Erb et al 1976), this is an important signal for the farmer as it shows when a cow is ready to mate. In some advances these collars are capable of detecting illness, helping improve disease control. Another amazing advance in technology is robots. A biorob is capable of measuring the quality of soils on farms. Soil is important for crops and animals its maintenance is vital. This handy robot can determine how compact the soil is. As previously mentioned habitat mapping is important for preventing biodiversity loss, a machine like this biorob used for soil mapping can be used for a similar practice like habitat mapping (King 2017).
Conclusion
The world’s population continues to grow, the demand for the Agriculture sector grows each year. For Agriculture and agri-food sector to tackle what the future holds it’s important to focus on priorities like Brexit, the environment, and technological advances in the Agri sector. To adapt to future changes it is important to accept and develop new ideas and research from many areas and countries. It’s vital to identify the areas which will need improving to allocate policies, technologies, and resources to combat them.
References
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Websites
WWW1
https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en
WWW2
https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/plant/docs/pesticides_sud_report-act_2020_en.pdf
WWW3
WWW4