Blog 7: Research part 2

In the last blog (Blog 6: Research) I wrote about the consumer-based results from my study. As we all know, this wasn’t the only part of the research. I said in my thesis that globalisation has benefitted Viet Nam, but a heightened reliance on imports has diminished its food system resilience. While food systems are often supplemented by external sources, relying on only six countries for half of staple agri-food imports renders Viet Nam vulnerable. And this post will show you why!

I analysed data provided by the Vietnamese customs department to measure Viet Nam’s import dependencies specifically for 2022. I found that there was a huge increase in the value of imported foods between 2013 and 2022 into Viet Nam. In fact, Viet Nam doubled food imports in the last decade. Generally, these imports were strongest and largest from Asia-Pacific countries, which includes Indonesia and Thailand, close neighbours of Viet Nam. However, The country relies on just 6 countries for more than half of its food and agriculture imports. Argentina, Brazil, China, The United States, Indonesia, and Australia occupy the top places in the categories I studied. I used these categories to represent major commodity groups for foods, foodstuffs, and agricultural production representing Viet Nam’s food system requirements. I consider this to represent an overview of the fragility of Viet Nam’s import reliance on selected regions worldwide. China, Cambodia, Thailand and Laos are neighbouring countries directly adjacent to Viet Nam, each of which has a strong exporting relationship with Viet Nam. Out of these countries, China exports the most, worth over 117 billion, 2.3 billion of which is food or agricultural foodstuffs which are the group included in this study. Cambodia provided 1.2 billion worth of fodder, oils, milk products, fertilisers, soya, cashews, fruits, maize and fishery products. This was followed by Thailand at 561 million USD and Laos at 126 million USD.

In 8 of the commodity categories analysed, the bulk (i.e., larger than 50%) of the value of imports came from just two countries (See below). Australia and the United States combined provide 83.52% of Viet Nam’s wheat. Wheat imports into Viet Nam come from just 8 countries, worth 1.4 billion USD. Soy imports also primarily come from just two countries, Brazil and the USA at 93.62%, with Viet Nam relying on Brazil and Argentina for 88% of its maize supplies. 70% of Viet Nam’s maize comes from Argentina, with the remainder made up by Brazil, India, Laos and Thailand, with a minor contribution from Cambodia. Viet Nam imported almost 6 Million tons of maize from Argentina, which is the largest exporter of maize around the world. This level of import origin is followed to a lesser degree by Brazil and India. I think this is incredibly interesting as it shows the excess reliance the country has on some countries for staple goods.

Reliance on Imports value, volumes, and percentage of value in category of 12 major commodity types into Viet Nam 2022 calculated from data from the general department of customs ‘statistics of import by country/territory 2022’

If we take a look at Maize:

Imports of maize into Viet Nam are expected to rise to 16,800 thousand ton from 10,000 ton in 2021 (OECD & FAO, 2022). Maize is an import of growing importance in the Southeast Asian region and is the worlds most traded cereal crop (Tigchelaar et al., 2018). We see the reliance Viet Nam has on Argentina for maize yet Argentina’s maize production is under threat from climate impacts like La Niña, which can have adverse effects on yields. Maize is more affected by climate when compared to wheat and soybeans (Anderson et al., 2019), by up to 66% in production variance in North-east Brazil and 17% in other parts of South America (Anderson et al., 2019). Theoretically, this could pose a disadvantage for Viet Nam, as they have such a large reliance on Argentina’s imports. North America, Mexico, West Africa, Central Asia and China are projected to have spatially homogenous losses for maize in the future (Jägermeyr et al., 2021). However, it can be viewed as beneficial that Viet Nam does not have a strong have a trade relationship with China and the US for maize as these are expected to experience a larger reduction in yields. The country may have to turn to alternative sources of maize in the future as demand increases globally and competition for resources rises.

The four chief maize producers globally are expected to decrease production by the end of the century as a result of temperature increases (Zhao et al., 2017). As they are responsible for 2/3 of global maize production this is predicted to influence Viet Nam greatly, as India and Brazil’s production will decrease by 5.2 ± 4.5% and 5.5 ± 4.5% per degree Celsius respectively (Zhao et al., 2017). The Top 4 maize-exporting countries worldwide are predicted to have a yield loss of 7% under 2 °C of warming and up to 86% under 4°C by 2050 (Tigchelaar et al., 2018). The OECD and FAO (2022) agricultural outlook for 2031 pertaining to forecast global cereal production expects Argentina to account for just 5% of the worlds Maize production, with Brazil rising to 9%. This shows just the pressure the Vietnamese food, agriculture and feedstock sector will be under in the coming years.

Ultimately I conclude a sustainable, resilient food system in Viet Nam should be prioritised over unequal export-import dependencies. This study can be used as a platform for examining potential issues that may arise in the future especially due to expected increases in adverse climatic events, climate change and economic difficulties. I hope I have explained that this is not a clear-cut issue with a one size fits all solution but will require a multi-directional approach targeting various levels in the national food systems with an emphasis on government involvement and scientific input, using science-based solutions and monitoring changing resilience levels. Future research avenues should prioritise investigating the potential impact of trade changes on urban and peri-urban areas in Viet Nam and their links to resilience. The nuanced disruption of socioeconomic systems and how shocks are spread to indirectly affected regions is an area that needs further study and more refined modelling techniques (Naqvi & Monasterolo, 2021).

Although I don’t intend to bore you all with the breakdown of every category studied, for that, you would have to read the paper, I do hope this gave you an adequate overview of the diminishing resilience of Viet Nam’s food system. I would as such, then invite you to read it, and you can contact me any time to get this research. I would also be delighted to discuss it with you all. Finally, I would like to thank my supervisors, and everyone else involved in this project and masters and wish you all the best of luck in your future.